Sri Lanka’s 5% economic growth forecast uncertain amid global instability: CBSL Chief

Although Sri Lanka had initially expected an economic growth rate of around 5% for 2026, recent changes in global economic conditions after March have made it difficult to provide an accurate forecast, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe has said.

The Governor noted that before the emergence of the current global economic instability, projections had indicated that Sri Lanka’s economy would grow by approximately 5% in 2026.

However, he explained that due to instability in the global economy since April, it is now uncertain how conditions will evolve over the coming months.

Dr. Weerasinghe said that if the current situation stabilizes within three months, the Sri Lankan economy could still grow close to 5%, though slightly lower. However, if the impact continues for six to nine months, it could have a more severe effect on economic growth, making precise forecasting difficult at this stage.

He further pointed out that rising oil prices and inflation have already begun to affect the economy during the second quarter of the year.

Speaking further, the Central Bank Governor stated that while the earlier expectation was around 5% growth, the situation has changed significantly due to external shocks, and it is now difficult to make a definitive projection given ongoing uncertainty in global conditions.