Sri Lanka will avert nearly 18,000 COVID deaths with increased stringency levels: Experts group

Sri Lanka is showing a rapid increase in number of cases and deaths reported daily and the recent trends indicate the country could soon face a health crisis of unprecedented proportions, a group of independent experts comprising World Health Organization (WHO) representatives has warned.

The Monash University, Australia in collaboration with WHO SEAR and Sri Lanka County Office, has carried out some projections on notified cases and deaths using the Health Ministry’s Epidemiology Unit data. The projections have assumed that 50% will be fully vaccinated by end of August 2021.

According to the experts, at the current levels of mobility restrictions, the daily infections count is projected to increase up to mid-September at 6,000. Meanwhile, ICU admissions may peak at around 275 by early October with cumulative deaths at around 30,000 by January, 2022. “But note that since we have not yet achieved the vaccine coverage assumed in the model, the projections are an under-estimate.” 

However, at increased levels of stringency (similar to May-June 2021), for a period of four weeks, the island will have lesser number of cases of around 1,000 per day, deaths less than 25 per day and ICU care to less than 25 per day by October, the experts pointed out.

Sri Lanka will avert about 18,000 deaths by January 2022 if the level of stringency is immediately increased, they emphasized.

“This will give the required time to accelerate vaccination and achieve the level of protection following the second dose of vaccines; as well as for the health system to recover from the overwhelming case load.”

The projections were presented during the 5th Independent Expert Group Meeting on the current COVID-19 situation and way forward.

The experts highlighted that immediate actions are crucial and critical because it takes a few weeks before measures show a positive impact on the number of infections and hospital admissions. “Any delay in implementation will lead to increase in deaths and will require even more stringent measures with longer duration to regain control.”

More detailed recommendations are that Sri Lanka should:

• Strictly enforce movement restrictions, including inter-district travel except for essential services. The effective implementation of these measures may require the enforcement of a curfew for a short period, in large geographic areas or nationally.

• Restrict /cancel all public events for 3 weeks.

• Provide care and protect the health workers and augment staffing in hospitals to minimize disruption of essential health services.

• Develop and implement an effective communication plan to engage the public and to update them on the control measures.

• Accurate reporting of both cases and deaths to get a better picture of the ground situation.  May also use proxy indicators such as observed Test Positivity Rate (TPR), trends measured using weekly moving averages and time series analysis, mobility data, etc.

• Prioritize to vaccinate all those over 60 years old and those with co-morbidities, preferably with Pfizer, Moderna or Astra Zeneca because even a single dose of these vaccines provides some degree of protection until the second dose is given.

Full report: Independent Expert Group Recommendations 12th August 2021 by Adaderana Online on Scribd

Meanwhile, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington has projected that Sri Lanka’s death toll from COVID-19 may climb over 12,000 by December 01.

According to the predictions of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the number of fatalities could sweep past 22,000 by December 01, if the prevailing situation exacerbates.

Sri Lanka recorded over 100 victims of novel coronavirus for four consecutive days since August 09. According to IHME projection, reported deaths in the country may increase to 350 by later October.

A total of 156 new COVID-related deaths were confirmed in Sri Lanka yesterday, as the total moved up to 5,620. This is the highest number of victims reported in a single day.

Sri Lanka also saw a spike in daily infections count yesterday after 3,039 more persons were tested positive for the virus. This pushed the tally of confirmed cases to 345,118.

As per official data, more than 37,000 active cases are currently under medical care and as many as 302,455 have returned to health.