Australians are forecast to spend $1.6bn in the sales on Boxing Day as the consumer regulator warns shoppers that even major retailers use deceptive sales tactics.
The revenue generated from Boxing Day sales on Friday is forecast to rise by 4.3% compared with 2024, according to new data from Roy Morgan and the Australian Retailers Association (ARA).
Australians are expected to spend $3.832bn across the post-Christmas week to 31 December, an increase of 4.4% from last year, according to the ARA.
Catriona Lowe, the deputy chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, encouraged consumers to focus on the final price, not the advertised discount or promotion, to assess whether they were getting a good deal.
“We are concerned that, despite many warnings, some retailers are still using a range of tactics to misrepresent the size or scope of discounts and the duration of sales to consumers,” she said.
The regulator wrote to “a number” of major retailers after the initial findings of a Black Friday sweep of retailers indicated some were still using a range of potentially misleading strategies, such as fake countdown timers.
The household goods and fashion sectors are expected to dominate on Boxing Day with forecast sales of $476m and $216m respectively, while department stores should receive a boost with sales on the day expected to be worth $123m, up 5.1% from 2024.
The comparison website Finder was even more bullish, forecasting that one in three Australians would shop the Boxing Days sales and spend $3.1bn overall, based on a survey of 1,005 people.
The chief executive of the ARA, Chris Rodwell, attributed the forecast growth in sales to the “resilience” of the retail sector as well as the “enduring appeal of Boxing Day as a premier discount event”.
Even though the ARA is expecting strong Boxing Day sales, overall consumer confidence in Australia is not high and experts warn it could take a further hit if the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates again.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating dropped two points to 81.5 in the week of 9-15 December, 2.4 points lower than the year before and 2.8 points below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3.
The rating calculates the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable answers and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions about the economy and spending.
Sophia Angala, an economist at ANZ, said the rating ended 2025 six points lower than at the start of the year, with the drop potentially due to the risk of an interest rate rise as well as soft labour market figures.
Prof Gary Mortimer, a retail expert at the Queensland University of Technology, said having interest rate reductions on hold for the past three months and the potential of an increase in the new year would continue to stifle confidence.
But he said there was “an element of tradition” about shopping in the Boxing Day sales which meant they remained popular even if overall consumer sentiment was down.
The chief economist at KPMG, Brendan Rynne, said uncertainty about the economy meant people were limiting their discretionary spending to when big sales were on.
“[It] doesn’t mean people aren’t spending money, they’re just being more cautious about how they’re spending money,” he said.
“It’s not surprising the ARA think there will be a healthy sales period but it comes at a cost of more moderate growth and outcomes during the year.”
While consumer confidence is relatively low, household spending increased 1.3% in the month to October and 5.6% compared with to October 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
But Rynne said high employment and higher prices due to inflation meant there could be an increase in household spending even with subdued consumer sentiment.
Source: The Guardian
--Agencies
