The European Space Agency is considering increasing the launch rate of its Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets in the coming years to overcome a potential bottleneck in satellite deployments, the agency's chief said on Wednesday.
Director General Josef Aschbacher told reporters that a decision would be needed soon if forecasts of a sharp rise in demand, expected to peak around 2030, prove accurate.
Operator Arianespace's most recent projection is for nine or 10 launches of Ariane 6 rockets a year from 2027.
Based on Europe's own missions, as well as possible further interest from Amazon and other commercial activity, there is more demand than planned capacity, Aschbacher said at an event organised by the AJPAE aerospace media association.
Amazon has already commissioned 18 launches.
"Of course the question is, can we satisfy all these launches? That's exactly the assessment we are doing right now," Aschbacher said, adding that no decisions had been made so far.
“We are already advanced in some of these estimates, but it's also clear that if we want to satisfy launch requirements in 2030 ... we need to make a decision pretty soon to build up the capacities needed.”
Arianespace, a subsidiary of Airbus-Safran rocket venture ArianeGroup, declined to comment ahead of a regular news briefing planned for September 7.
The 23-nation ESA is exploring the feasibility of launching humans into space on European rockets rather than hitching rides on U.S. vehicles, though the decision would be a political one.
Officials say the initiative could increase ESA's budget by about 10 per cent, depending on how it is funded. The issue is expected to feature at a space summit hosted by France next week.
MERGER UNDER SCRUTINY
Aschbacher also gave the clearest signal yet that ESA is prepared to use its weight as Europe's largest buyer to ensure satellite competition remains amid plans for a major merger.
Airbus, Thales and Leonardo announced plans last year to combine satellite manufacturing activities into a new company code-named "Project Bromo," in a deal awaiting antitrust approval.
While ESA is not directly involved in the negotiations, it accounts for roughly 60 per cent of public-sector spending on satellites in Europe.
Aschbacher declined to say whether he supported the merger, which he said was a matter for the companies and European Commission.
"What I'm saying is that ESA can certainly ... use the tool sets that we have, meaning industrial policy, to ensure that the European space ecosystem will continue to flourish," he added.
That could include measures to protect the sector's supply chain, a key concern for companies outside the proposed venture.
Germany's OHB, which would be the main domestic European competitor to the new combined group, has warned the deal could weaken its own supply chain.
Airbus and its partners argue that competition should be assessed on a global basis rather than a European one, citing the need to compete with Elon Musk's Starlink.
Source: Reuters
– Agencies
