Australia forecast on Monday that deaths would exceed births for the first time in the 2060s, a demographic shift ​with far-reaching implications for an economy grappling with an ageing population, declining ‌births and cuts to immigration.

For decades, Australia has sustained population growth by relying on immigration to offset low birth rates. But with immigration now slowing, the country is starting to look down ​a path already taken by many advanced economies including Japan, Germany and ​South Korea, where deaths have already outnumbered births.

In an Intergenerational Report published ⁠on Monday, the Treasury department identified AI, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, ageing ​population and a shift to a service-based economy as the five most consequential transformations facing ​the country's economic outlook over the next four decades.

It now expects population growth to slow to 0.9% a year over the next four decades as fertility rates decline and net overseas migration – the ​difference between the number of incoming migrants and people leaving the country – continues to ​fall before stabilising. That is down from an average of 1.4% rise over the past 40 ‌years.

"For ⁠the first time, deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s," Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a speech.

"The number of Australians over 85 will triple by 2066, putting further demand on health services."

The left-leaning Labor government tightened immigration rules last week, as Prime ​Minister Anthony Albanese ​seeks to fend off ⁠a surge in support for the right-wing populist One Nation party that has pledged to sharply curb immigration.

Albanese's approval rating slipped ​this week to its lowest level since he became prime ​minister in ⁠2022.

The report also warned an ageing population would boost demand in the care services, with regions with older populations facing greater labour shortages in healthcare and aged care, sectors that ⁠rely ​heavily on migrant workers.

The report also flagged tax cuts ​in future budgets as Labor doles out more cost-of-living relief to Australians grappling with elevated inflation, higher ​mortgage rates, and expensive housing.

Source: Reuters

-Agencies