When targeted by nationwide protests early this year, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei unleashed the bloodiest crackdown of his nearly four decades in power. But now a U.S. or Israeli military strike may have ended his rule.

President Donald Trump said Khamenei was killed in a major new attack by U.S. and Israeli forces. Trump also urged Iranians to topple the theocracy. 

Iranian state media confirmed his death late Saturday, saying Khamenei was “martyred in a joint attack” by the U.S. and Israel. “This great scholar and fighter devoted his life to the elevation of Iran and Islam, and, God willing, is united with the Imam and the Master of Martyrs,” Press TV said. 

The 86-year-old Khamenei had tried to avert such strikes as the U.S. built up its military presence in the region to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. 

He warned that if the U.S. struck, a regional war would ensue. At the same time, he allowed Iran to enter negotiations with the U.S. over its nuclear program.

Long before the supreme leader’s compound was among the first targets on Saturday, Khamenei was under growing pressure.

The suppression of the protests, with thousands of people killed amid chants of “Death to Khamenei,” was a sign of the threat that popular anger represented. Years of sanctions, economic mismanagement and corruption have gutted Iran’s economy.

Israeli and U.S. bombardment during last summer’s 12-day war had heavily damaged Iran’s nuclear program, missile systems and military capabilities. 

Iran’s network of regional proxies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, has been weakened by Israeli and U.S. attacks since the war in Gaza began, along with Tehran’s influence across the Middle East.

How Khamenei reshaped Iran

When he rose to power in 1989, Khamenei had to overcome deep doubts about his authority. A low-level cleric at the time, Khamenei lacked the religious credentials of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution. Khamenei played an important role in the movement that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in the 1979 revolution.

But Khamenei has ruled three times longer than the late Khomeini and has shaped Iran perhaps even more dramatically.

He entrenched the system of rule by the “mullahs,” or Shiite Muslim clerics. Under the Islamic Republic, clerics stand atop the hierarchy, drawing the lines to which the civilian government, the military and the intelligence and security establishment must submit.

That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority — below only that of God. 

At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant player in military and internal politics.

The Guard boasts Iran’s most elite military and oversees its ballistic missile program. 

Its international arm, the Quds Force, pieced together the “Axis of Resistance,” the collection of pro-Iranian proxies stretching from Yemen to Lebanon that for years gave Iran considerable power across the region. Khamenei also gave the Guard a free hand to build a network of businesses allowing it to dominate Iran’s economy.

In return, the Guard became his loyal shock force.

Consolidating power to quell dissent

The first major threat to Khamenei’s grip was the reform movement that swept into a parliamentary majority and the presidency soon after he became supreme leader. It advocated for giving greater power to elected officials, which Khamenei’s hard-line supporters feared would lead to dismantling the Islamic Republic system.

Khamenei rallied the clerical establishment, and unelected bodies run by mullahs shut down major reforms and barred reform candidates from elections.

Since then, waves of popular protests have been crushed.

Huge nationwide demonstrations erupted in 2009 over allegations of vote-rigging. Under the weight of sanctions, economic protests broke out in 2017 and 2019. More came in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini, who was detained by police for not wearing her mandatory headscarf properly.

Crackdowns against the protesters killed hundreds, and hundreds more were arrested amid reports of detainees tortured to death or raped in prison.

The latest demonstrations touched off in late December in Tehran’s traditional bazaar after the country’s currency, the rial, currency plunged to a record low of 1.42 million to the U.S. dollar. Protests quickly spread across the country.

“Rioters must be put in their place,” Khamenei declared. When hundreds of thousands took to the streets Jan. 8 and 9, security forces fired on crowds, and veterans of past demonstrations said they were stunned by the firepower unleashed.

Activists said they documented more than 7,000 killed and were working to verify more. The government has acknowledged more than 3,000 dead, which is still higher than the toll from past crackdowns.

Why did Khamenei agree to nuclear negotiations?

By agreeing to nuclear negotiations, Khamenei likely sought to buy time to avert U.S. strikes. But Iran opposed Washington’s main demands that it halt all nuclear enrichment and surrender its uranium stocks.

Trump initially threatened strikes to stop Khamenei and Iran’s other leaders from killing peaceful protesters. He then wielded the threat to push Tehran to engage seriously in nuclear negotiations.

Some in Iran and the large Iranian diaspora expressed hope that the U.S. would use military force to bring down Khamenei. But there were also strong voices even among Khamenei opponents who were against foreign intervention to topple the theocracy.

Who is Khamenei’s successor?

Officially a panel of Shiite clerics is tasked with choosing one of their own to succeed Khamenei, and multiple names have been touted among including his son.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, told The Associated Press this week that a key lesson Tehran drew from last year’s war was the need to ensure regime continuity in case of Khamenei’s death. He added that power could shift to a small committee of top officials until hostilities subside.

“It is possible that Khamenei has indicated a preferred successor behind closed doors,” Citrinowicz said. “However automatic implementation of a preselected successor will increase internal friction during war.”

But the Revolutionary Guard has grown to become Iran’s most powerful body. If the supreme leader is confirmed to be dead, that could prompt Guard commanders or its regular military to seize power more overtly. And that could set off a bloody conflict over control of the oil-rich country of 85 million people.

Source: AP 
--Agencies