Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a British business providing forecasting and advisory services through research and analysis, has predicted that the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna  (SLPP) will win the upcoming Presidential election in 2020.

According to its latest analysis, that although the authority of President Maithripala Sirisena is waning and “disenchanted” members of the SLFP will join with SLPP against the government.

“Although Maithripala Sirisena, the president, remains an influential force in Sri Lankan politics, the increasing factionalism within the SLFP suggests that his authority over the party is waning. The opposition Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP, Sri Lanka People’s Front) will attempt to convince disenchanted members of the SLFP to support subsequent no-confidence motions against the government”, says EIU.

The report further says that although the incumbent government would serve its complete term until 2020, “its weak level of control in parliament will hinder policymaking”.

SLPP, backed by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, will win the upcoming 2020 Presidential election with the majority of seats and will form a government, predicts the EIU report.

“The next parliamentary elections are due in mid-2020. We believe that the SLPP will win the largest number of seats and form a government. The party’s landslide victory in the February 2018 local elections was testament to its popularity and indicates strong anti-incumbent sentiment. Tensions within the ruling coalition and inefficient policymaking will make it difficult for either the UNP or the SLFP to regain public confidence.

Mr Sirisena may run for a second term at the presidential election in 2020, assuming that the government is not able to deliver on its promise to enact a new constitution, which would bar him from running for another term. Following the passage of the 19th amendment to the constitution in 2015, the former president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, cannot run for the presidency, but the post of prime minister is open to him.”, reports EIU

The EIU report also expects that a close associate or a relative of Mahinda Rajapaksa will win the 2020 election.

“The pro-Rajapaksa camp has been gaining political momentum, and Mr Sirisena had only a thin margin of victory over Mr Rajapaksa in 2015. Therefore, even a slight shift in voter support would be enough to enable a candidate from the pro-Rajapaksa camp to be elected president.”