The National People’s Power (NPP)/Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) are running neck-and-neck in General Election voting intentions amongst likely voters at 32% and 31% each, respectively, a latest survey results showed.

This was revealed in the latest Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) polling from January 2023, conducted by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP).

The IHP is a Colombo-based independent, non-partisan research centre. The SLOTS lead investigator is Dr. Ravi Rannan-Eliya of IHP, trained in public opinion polling at Harvard University and has conducted numerous surveys over three decades.

The report noted that both NPP/JVP and the SJB are ahead of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), however, the difference between them is within the margin of error.

IHP MRP analysis of likely voters indicates that since July 2022 when President Ranil Wickremesinghe took office, the SJB has gained a net three points, the NPP/JVP one point, and the UNP five points. These gains have been largely at the expense of the SLPP whose support fell 11 points.

Assuming general election voting intent transfers to voting in local government election which was initially due in March but later postponed, the SLOTS January polling suggest that on current trends, the SJB and the NPP/JVP between them will win the plurality in most local authorities and wards.

However, most local authorities are likely to end up with divided control, with no party winning an absolute majority, according to the analysis.

The report mentions that the SJB and ITAK will lead the NPP/JVP in the Northern and Eastern provinces, but the NPP/JVP will likely lead the SJB in the Western, Southern, North-Central, and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, and will do better in rural areas, whilst the SJB will do better in urban and municipal councils.

Dr Rannan-Eliya commented that “This will be a huge change from the 2018 local elections. The main drivers are a collapse in the SLPP vote, and the NPP/JVP doing better than the SJB in winning defecting SLPP voters and in retaining their original 2020 General Election vote.”

According to IHP MRP analysis, the NPP/JVP has a clearer lead over the SJB amongst registered voters, but SJB supporters are more likely to vote, reducing the margin between them in likely voters by 2%.