Sri Lanka could face a very strong El Niño event by the end of 2026, with global climate forecasts indicating a probability of more than 90%, according to the Department of Meteorology.
The developing El Niño phenomenon has raised concerns over its potential impact on weather patterns, water resources and agriculture in Sri Lanka, according to experts.
Strong El Niño Expected by End of 2026
The Director General of the Department of Meteorology, Ajith Wijemanna said the current El Niño condition is gradually strengthening.
According to the latest global forecasts, there is now a more than 90% probability that the El Niño condition will become very strong by the end of the year.
Wijemanna said forecasts also indicate a nearly 70% probability that the El Niño event developing this year could be stronger than previous El Niño events recorded over the past 75 years, from 1950 onward.
“This El Niño condition is gradually developing. Global forecasts indicate that the probability of it becoming a very strong El Niño by the end of this year is more than 90%,” he said.
He added that comparisons with historical El Niño events suggest that the current phenomenon could become significantly stronger than those recorded previously.
Sri Lanka Reservoir Water Levels Fall to 37%
Concerns over water availability have also emerged as reservoir levels continue to decline.
The Department of Irrigation said the total water volume in the 74 major reservoirs under its control has fallen to approximately 37% of capacity.
Irrigation Director (Water Management) Engineer H.N.P.S.D. Herath said the available water is currently expected to be sufficient for the Yala cultivation season.
He said water supplies are expected to remain adequate provided the country receives the anticipated rainfall during November and December.
Water Supply Remains Unaffected
Despite declining levels in irrigation reservoirs, the National Water Supply and Drainage Board (NWSDB) said there is currently no major issue with the country's drinking-water supply.
NWSDB Chairman Engineer Chandana Bandara said water treatment plants across the island are operating at their maximum capacity.
He said water supplies have not been reduced despite dry weather conditions affecting several districts.
However, Bandara noted that some irrigation reservoirs have experienced water-level reductions of more than 56%, underlining the importance of careful water management.
El Niño Could Increase Weather and Water Concerns
The latest forecasts are likely to increase attention on Sri Lanka's water resources, agriculture, rainfall patterns and drought risk in the coming months.
Authorities are therefore urging careful management of available water resources while continuing to monitor the development of the El Niño phenomenon.
