The Department of Meteorology states that, compared with the 28 El Niño events recorded since 1950, the upcoming El Niño event is expected to be more significant than any previously recorded.

Speaking at a press conference today (11), Director General of the Department of Meteorology Ajith Wijeyamanne stated that the forecast probability of the occurrence of an El Niño event has increased from the previously estimated 69% to 75%.

Accordingly, he noted that the upcoming event could have a greater impact than any El Niño event recorded over the past 75 years.

Although the El Niño phenomenon occurs in the Pacific Ocean, thousands of kilometres away from Sri Lanka, it is expected to have a significant impact on the country's weather patterns. The Department stated that rainfall received across Sri Lanka during the upcoming months of October and November is expected to be significantly above normal levels.

The Department of Meteorology further stated that although rainfall is expected to decrease slightly over the next two weeks, it will gradually increase and spread across the island from late September.

The Director General revealed that the probability of the situation developing into a 'Strong El Niño' event between October and December is as high as 98%.

However, following this period of heavy rainfall, rainfall across most parts of the island is expected to decrease significantly from January to March next year, creating a risk of severe water shortages.

Wijeyamanne emphasised that an El Niño event does not simply result in dry weather or drought, but represents a significant shift in Sri Lanka's normal monsoon weather patterns.

He further stated that, amid rising global temperatures, both daytime and nighttime temperatures across the island are expected to remain high during the coming period. As a result, he noted that the arrival of rainfall is not expected to bring a significant reduction in the prevailing heat or temperatures.