In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA expects that average heating oil expenditures by households that use oil as their primary heating fuel during the 2014-15 winter will be 27% ($632) below last winter’s expenditures.
Heating oil prices have declined with crude oil prices, and EIA expects U.S. heating oil prices to average $3.09 per gallon (gal) this winter, 20% lower than last winter, and 15% lower than expected in the October Winter Fuels Outlook.
Data from the National Weather Service show that November 2014 was 18% colder than the 10-year average for the entire United States. Colder weather typically translates into increased consumption of heating fuels and higher space heating expenditures.
However, because the National Weather Service still expects the balance of the winter to be milder than last year, with temperatures ranging from 11% to 16% warmer for the Northeast, Midwest, and South, total consumption is not expected to be higher.
In EIA’s October Winter Fuels Outlook, heating oil consumption in the Northeast was expected to average 10% less than last year. In the December STEO, Northeast heating oil consumption was revised slightly higher, but will still average 8% lower than last winter. - dairyherd
