Sri Lanka’s economic growth is projected to moderate from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.0% in 2026, before rising slightly to 4.2% in 2027, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The ADB further projects inflation to increase from -0.5% to 5.2% in 2026, before easing to 4.0% in 2027.

This forecast is based on an early stabilization scenario for the Middle East conflict, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026, Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) flagship economic publication. Sri Lanka’s recovery held firm in 2025 despite the late-year disruption of Cyclone Ditwah, the ADB said.

Private consumption surged amid low inflation and easing interest rates, while remittances hit a record high, as did the primary budget surplus. The current account posted a third consecutive surplus, and official reserves climbed to their strongest level in years.

The outlook for 2026 is increasingly shaped by the conflict in the Middle East, even as post-Ditwah reconstruction spending provides some support for growth. Private consumption will remain the main growth driver, though higher inflation will temper household spending power, and private investment is expected to recover only gradually amid heightened uncertainty.

Higher energy costs, potentially weaker remittance inflows, and disruptions to trade and tourism will weigh on household incomes and external buffers and drag on economic growth. Inflation is projected to accelerate sharply to 5.2% in 2026, driven largely by the Middle East conflict, it said.

“Sri Lanka has come a long way since the recent economic crisis, and its economic performance over the last two years is a major achievement,” said ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Shannon Cowlin. “However, the risks ahead are real and significant. This is not the moment to ease up on reforms. Fiscal discipline must be maintained and resilience must be strengthened against the external shocks that will keep testing this economy. At the same time, scaling up and executing public investment will be essential to sustaining the recovery.”

ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—50 from the region.